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Portfolio

Turn holdings into value weights and portfolio returns, see how rebalancing changes a strategy, and distinguish expected performance from realised results.

A portfolio is the collection of investments and financing positions whose combined value and performance you manage. It can contain shares, bonds, funds, cash, derivatives and short positions. The central question is how much each position contributes to the whole: owning a good security does not automatically make the total portfolio suitable for its purpose.

A retirement account, an equity fund and a trading desk's book are all portfolios, but their objectives differ. A portfolio intended to meet a payment next year faces a different problem from one seeking long-term growth. Its definition therefore includes an accounting boundary: which accounts, liabilities, currencies and cash balances count?

Turn a list of holdings into weights

Suppose an account starts with USD 100,000. It holds 600 units of hypothetical investment A at USD 100 each, and 200 units of investment B at USD 200 each. There is no uninvested cash, borrowing or external contribution during the year.

HoldingUnitsBeginning priceBeginning valueBeginning weight
A600USD 100USD 60,00060%
B200USD 200USD 40,00040%
TotalUSD 100,000100%

The account has three times as many units of A as B, but only one and a half times as much money in A. Unit counts are not portfolio weights. For ordinary long holdings, with quantity qiq_i and price Pi,0P_{i,0},

V0=C0+∑iqiPi,0,wi,0=qiPi,0V0,wcash,0=C0V0.V_0=C_0+\sum_i q_iP_{i,0},\qquad w_{i,0}=\frac{q_iP_{i,0}}{V_0},\qquad w_{\text{cash},0}=\frac{C_0}{V_0}.

Here C0C_0 is cash and V0V_0 is beginning portfolio value. With positive equity, these weights, including cash, sum to one. Borrowing can be represented by a negative cash balance; its interest belongs in the return calculation. A short holding has a negative signed market value. Margin requirements and restrictions on short-sale proceeds still have to be respected.

Derivatives need additional care: a futures contract's small initial market value does not mean its price exposure is small. Market-value weights alone do not describe its notional exposure, sensitivity or collateral needs. Even for funds, two different tickers may hold substantially the same underlying securities.

The return belongs to the money invested

Assume A rises 10% and B falls 5% over the year, with no distributions or costs. A ends worth USD 66,000 and B USD 38,000. The account ends at USD 104,000: its realised simple return is 4%.

For beginning weights held over one period, matching asset total returns give

Rp=∑iwi,0Ri,R_p=\sum_i w_{i,0}R_i,

including cash or financing as appropriate. The example gives

Rp=0.60(0.10)+0.40(−0.05)=0.04.R_p=0.60(0.10)+0.40(-0.05)=0.04.
A contributes +6 percentage points and B −2 percentage points. Adding the asset returns directly would ignore position sizes. Using the ending weights would also be wrong: those weights already reflect the year's gains and losses.

This identity assumes a consistent return convention. If an asset pays income, use total return with a stated reinvestment convention, or track the income in the cash ledger; do not count it twice. Convert values and returns to the same reporting currency. Deposits and withdrawals require a performance method that separates external flows from investment gains: an increase in account value is not necessarily an investment return.

Three money allocations: initial A USD 60,000 and B USD 40,000; after returns A USD 66,000 and B USD 38,000; restoring 60/40 requires A USD 62,400 and B USD 41,600.
Three money allocations: initial A USD 60,000 and B USD 40,000; after returns A USD 66,000 and B USD 38,000; restoring 60/40 requires A USD 62,400 and B USD 41,600.
Original hypothetical holdings ledger, USD. Equal dollar scales show both the gain in total wealth and the USD 3,600 transfer needed to restore the starting allocation.

Cash is part of this accounting. If instead the account began with USD 54,000 in A, USD 36,000 in B and USD 10,000 in cash earning 3%, the same asset moves would leave USD 103,900, a 3.9% return. Reporting only the invested sleeve's 4% would overstate the whole account's return. A cash reserve changes both exposure and the amount available for payments.

A portfolio also has a trading rule

After the first year, A's weight is about 63.46% and B's 36.54%. Holding the same units has changed the allocation. Buy and hold keeps those units; rebalancing trades to restore specified weights or another exposure target. The SEC's asset allocation guide explains why unequal asset growth creates this drift.

Restoring 60/40 at USD 104,000 requires USD 62,400 in A and USD 41,600 in B: sell USD 3,600 of A and buy the same amount of B. This example permits fractional units and ignores costs.

Now suppose that in a second year A loses 10% and B gains 20%.

Policy after year 1Second-year ending ASecond-year ending BTotal ending valueTwo-year cumulative return
Keep the original unitsUSD 59,400USD 45,600USD 105,0005.00%
Restore 60/40 onceUSD 56,160USD 49,920USD 106,0806.08%
The rebalanced portfolio earns 2% in year two, so its cumulative return is 1.04×1.02−1=6.08%1.04\times1.02-1=6.08\%. The difference comes from changing the holdings before the second year's returns occur. This particular reversal favours rebalancing; another sequence can favour buy and hold. Rebalancing is an exposure-control rule, not a guaranteed source of profit, and actual transaction costs reduce its result.

For a strategy that trades each period, calculate each period's return with its own beginning weights, then compound those portfolio returns. Applying the initial weights to every later period silently assumes repeated rebalancing.

Expected performance needs a joint risk model

Realised returns describe what happened. Expected return describes a probability-weighted future outcome under stated assumptions. Suppose the one-year simple returns of A and B have these hypothetical population moments:
InputAB
Expected return8%12%
Return standard deviation15%25%
Their correlation is 0.20, making their covariance 0.20(0.15)(0.25)=0.00750.20(0.15)(0.25)=0.0075 in decimal-return-squared units. For the 60/40 beginning allocation,
E[Rp]=0.60(0.08)+0.40(0.12)=0.096=9.6%,\mathbb{E}[R_p]=0.60(0.08)+0.40(0.12)=0.096=9.6\%, Var(Rp)=0.602(0.152)+0.402(0.252)+2(0.60)(0.40)(0.0075)=0.0217,σp=0.0217≈14.73%.\begin{aligned} \text{Var}(R_p) &=0.60^2(0.15^2)+0.40^2(0.25^2) +2(0.60)(0.40)(0.0075)\\ &=0.0217,\\ \sigma_p&=\sqrt{0.0217}\approx14.73\%. \end{aligned}
The variance is 0.0217 in decimal-return-squared units, not 2.17% volatility. Expected return is a weighted average; volatility generally is not. These moment identities need finite second moments but do not require normally distributed returns. Nor does a 9.6% expectation promise that the account will earn 9.6% next year. The realised 4% earlier is a separate illustrative outcome.
The covariance term explains why the mix matters. Diversification concerns how exposures move together, rather than the number of lines on an account statement. Several sector funds can repeat the same economic bet; one broad fund can hold many underlying businesses. The portfolio variance article develops the risk calculation, while the efficient frontier addresses which allocations are efficient under a particular model and constraint set.

Judge the whole against its job

A portfolio's headline return needs context. Compare it with a benchmark that matches its mandate, currency and measurement period. A 4% return against a 3% benchmark is a one-percentage-point active return; it does not by itself establish skill or alpha. The portfolio may simply have taken different risks.

Volatility is only one risk description. Concentration, financing, liquidity and losses near a spending deadline can matter even when a volatility estimate looks moderate. Taxes, fees and trading costs determine how much of the gross result reaches the investor. A feasible allocation must also satisfy actual cash, borrowing and trading restrictions.

For the next step, Mean-Variance Optimisation turns expected returns and covariance into an allocation model; Portfolio Constraints explains why an implementable portfolio needs limits. Both offer public previews, with full lessons requiring membership.

Sources

  • Elton, Gruber, Brown and Goetzmann, Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, 9th edition (2014), Chapter 4, “The Characteristics of the Opportunity Set Under Risk,” especially “Characteristics of Portfolios in General,” pp. 50–52. Grounding for value weights, expected return and covariance-based portfolio risk; examples here are original.
  • SEC Investor.gov, Asset Allocation and Diversification, checked 25 October 2026. Grounding for allocation drift, rebalancing and overlapping fund holdings.
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  • holdings
  • portfolio weights
  • portfolio returns
  • rebalancing
  • asset allocation
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