Two assets: together or against each other
Suppose a risk analyst uses this hypothetical covariance matrix for two assets' simple returns over the same fixed horizon:
Returns are recorded as decimals, so the entries have units of squared decimal return. Each asset has volatility over that horizon. Their correlation is .
Multiplying by two candidate directions gives
Both are eigenvectors. The first combines the assets with the same sign; the second contrasts them. Positive covariance makes the same-sign direction more variable than the opposing-sign direction when their lengths are matched. By comparison, is not an eigenvector: its image acquires a second component and leaves the original line.
These names describe this two-asset model. In a large universe, a leading eigenvector need not mean “the market,” and a low-variance direction need not be a profitable spread.
Why the normalisation changes the risk number
Eigenvectors do not come with a position size. If is an eigenvector, then is another for every nonzero scalar :
For any unit eigenvector of a covariance matrix,
where is the return vector. Thus the unit directions above have variances and . Their volatilities are approximately and over the chosen horizon. These are linear return combinations with unit vector length; their coefficients are not automatically fully invested portfolio weights.
A fully invested equal-weight portfolio has , so
From two directions to a risk decomposition
This separates a mode's inherent variance, , from the book's exposure to it, . A high-variance mode contributes little to a book that barely loads on it. Conversely, a low-variance spread can become a large risk after leverage.
In principal component analysis, the leading unit eigenvector maximises projected variance. Here it accounts for of the sum of the two assets' variances. That fraction measures a property of the covariance model; it is not the share of every portfolio's risk and says nothing about expected return. Orthogonal component scores are uncorrelated, which alone does not make them statistically independent.
Reading eigenvectors from data
A few checks matter when interpreting a reported eigenvector:
- Sign: a software output may reverse all signs between runs without changing the underlying line. Compare aligned directions rather than individual sign changes.
- Repeated eigenvalues: if an eigenvalue is repeated, its eigenspace may have many equally valid orthonormal bases. Even distinct but closely spaced eigenvalues can produce individual directions that move substantially when the estimated covariance changes. A stable subspace can be more meaningful than one labelled vector.
- Units and scaling: both coordinates above are same-horizon returns in the same decimal convention. Changing the scale of only one variable generally changes covariance eigenvectors. Using a correlation matrix instead means analysing standardised variables; its coefficients require conversion before being read as exposures to the original returns. Mixing raw currency moves, basis-point changes and returns without a stated scaling convention makes the geometry economically ambiguous.
- Matrix type: general square matrices need not have real eigenvectors or a complete eigenvector basis. The covariance conclusions rely on symmetry and positive semidefiniteness. In numerical work, check the residual and normalisation, but remember that a small residual does not establish that an estimated risk direction will remain stable out of sample.
Sources
- Gene H. Golub and Charles F. Van Loan, Matrix Computations, 4th edition, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013, §2.1.7, §7.1.1 and §8.1.3: eigenpairs, symmetric matrices, directional quadratic forms, invariant subspaces and eigenvector sensitivity.
- Gilbert Strang, Lecture 4: Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors, MIT OpenCourseWare, 18.065, Spring 2018: real and complex eigenvectors, zero eigenvalues and the symmetric case.
- NIST/SEMATECH, e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, §6.5.5.1: Properties of Principal Components: unit-length coefficients, maximum projected variance and diagonal component covariance.