For a positive claim and recovered value measured on the same basis,
Forty recovered from a claim of one hundred
Suppose a fictional USD claim is 100 at default and the net cash-equivalent value recovered, valued at that same date, is 40. Then recovery is , LGD is , and the loss is USD 60. The 40% describes this stipulated scenario; it is not a general recovery forecast.
The recovered value need not arrive as immediate cash. In an alternative synthetic workout, the creditor receives USD 52.50 and pays USD 10.50 in collection costs exactly one year after default. At a stipulated 5% annual discount rate,
Three numbers that can be called recovery
| Measure | What the number represents | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Postdefault market-price recovery | A traded or quoted value of the defaulted debt, often expressed relative to face value | Price date, quote basis and the obligation being priced |
| Credit-event auction price | A final price produced by the applicable auction process | Eligible obligations, auction terms and the contracts using that price |
| Workout recovery | Value obtained through collections, restructuring or asset realisation | Claim or exposure denominator, receipt dates, costs and discounting |
Hull's bond convention uses market value shortly after default as a percentage of face value. That is one recovery measure. A postdefault price reflects the market's valuation of remaining rights, rather than a promise that the holder will eventually collect that same percentage in cash.
Even the denominator can change the answer. If a stipulated claim includes USD 100 principal and USD 5 accrued interest, a recovered value of USD 40 is approximately of that claim, while it remains 40% of principal. Whether accrued interest belongs in a legal claim depends on the obligation and applicable rules; it should not be assumed from a price quoted per unit of face value.
Using recovery in a model
Before inserting into a credit model, identify what the model pays at default. Recovery of face value, recovery of a corresponding default-free bond, and recovery of the debt's predefault market value are different payoff assumptions. The same numerical parameter need not generate the same price under each convention.
Sources
- John C. Hull, Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, ninth Global Edition, Pearson, 2018, §24.3, p. 568: postdefault market-price convention and the separately stated US claim footnote.
- Alexander J. McNeil, Rüdiger Frey and Paul Embrechts, Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools, revised edition, Princeton University Press, 2015, §10.4.3, pp. 399–400: recovery-model conventions.
- Basel Committee, CRE36.76: economic loss for LGD estimation.
- ICE, Credit Event Auctions: final prices and eligible credit-derivative settlement.